DEFENSE MORNING CLIPS
As of 0430 Hours, November 10
OVERVIEW
President Biden emphasized the United States will not force Kyiv into a peace settlement and noted he is “not going to tell [Ukraine] what they have to do,” before confirming he intends to “lay out what our red lines are” with Chinese President Xi Jinping during a meeting in Indonesia next week, according to Politico. Separately, Moscow directed Russian forces around Kherson to destroy bridges, mine roads, and retreat across the Dnipro River where they are to entrench and be reinforced, while Ukrainian troops cautiously approach urban combat inside the regional capital which has become a focal point of the war, Reuters wrote. Also of note, the United States and Japan initiated the biennial Keen Sword exercises which also feature British, Canadian, and Australian participants to enhance interoperability and deter regional aggression, the Associated Press reported.
TOP STORIES
1. Biden promises to follow Ukraine’s lead on talks, push Russia on Griner
Politico Online, Nov. 9 (1928) | Matt Berg
President Joe Biden vowed not to try to dictate any talks between Russia and Ukraine as the dueling countries approach winter, saying that both sides will “lick their wounds” and decide whether they’ll compromise to end the war. Now that the midterm elections are over, Biden said he’s hopeful that “there’s a willingness to negotiate more specifically with us.” When asked if he could specify details about “alternative potential ways forward” that White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre suggested in a statement Wednesday, Biden cautioned that “it would not be a wise thing to do in order to see if they would move forward.”
2. Russia says troops leaving strategic Kherson, Ukraine doubts full pullout
Reuters, Nov. 10 (0213) | Tom Balmforth and Jonathan Landay
Moscow ordered troops to withdraw from near the strategic southern Ukrainian city of Kherson in a major setback as a top U.S. general estimated Russia has suffered more than 100,000 killed or wounded since invading its neighbour in February. Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu on Wednesday announced Russian forces would retreat from the west bank of the Dnipro River near Kherson in what could be a turning point in the war.
3. Japan, U.S. Hold Joint Arms Drills Amid China, North Korea Worry
Associated Press, Nov. 10 (0103) | Mari Yamaguchi
Japan and the United States began a major joint military exercise Thursday in southern Japan as the allies aim to step up readiness in the face of China’s increasing assertiveness and North Korea’s intensifying missile launches. The biennial “Keen Sword” drills kicked off at a Japanese air base in southern Japan and will also be held in several other locations in and around Japan through Nov. 19. About 26,000 Japanese and 10,000 American troops, as well as 30 vessels and 370 aircraft from both sides, are to participate in the drills, according to the Japanese Defense Ministry. Australia, Britain and Canada will also join parts of the drills, it said.
DEFENSE DEPARTMENT
4. More than 100,000 Russian military casualties in Ukraine, top U.S. general says
Reuters, Nov. 9 (2019) | Phil Stewart and Idrees Ali
America’s top general estimated on Wednesday that Russia’s military had seen more than 100,000 of its soldiers killed and wounded in Ukraine, and added Kyiv’s armed forces “probably” suffered a similar level of casualties in the war. Asked about prospects for diplomacy in Ukraine, Milley noted that the early refusal to negotiate in World War One compounded human suffering and led to millions more casualties.
5. Pentagon: Russia has likely lost half its tanks in Ukraine
The Hill Online, Nov. 9 (1454) | Ellen Mitchell
Russia has likely lost half its tanks, used up most of its precision-guided weapons and suffered tens of thousands of casualties so far in its war against Ukraine, the Pentagon’s top policy official said Tuesday. Kahl added that Russian forces have “probably lost half of their main battle tanks in the entire Russian military,” and they’ve “bogged down more than 80 percent of their land force in Ukraine.” Russia has struggled in its land war with Ukraine since it first began on Feb. 24, with Kahl calling the invasion a “massive strategic failure.”
EXECUTIVE/LEGISLATIVE
6. U.S. Refuses Advanced Drones for Ukraine to Avoid Escalation With Russia
Wall Street Journal Online, Nov. 9 (2032) | Gordon Lubold and Nancy A. Youssef
The Biden administration won’t give Ukraine advanced drones despite pleas from Kyiv and a bipartisan group of members of Congress, a reflection of the limit of the kinds of weaponry Washington is willing to provide for Ukraine’s defense. The decision deprives Ukraine of the kind of advanced weaponry Kyiv has been requesting for months. The Pentagon declined the request based on concerns that providing the Gray Eagle MQ-1C drones could escalate the conflict and signal to Moscow that the U.S. was providing weapons that could target positions inside Russia, U.S. officials and other people familiar with the decision said
7. Biden to discuss North Korea nuclear threat with Japan, South Korea leaders
Reuters, Nov. 9 (2126) | Nandita Bose and Steve Holland
President Joe Biden will meet Prime Minister Fumio Kishida of Japan and South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol during an upcoming trip to Asia to discuss how to stem North Korea’s nuclear program, a White House official said on Wednesday. The leaders will meet in Cambodia on Sunday, Nov. 13, when Biden visits Asia for meetings with ASEAN and the Group of 20 industrialized nations.
8. Ukrainian Officials to Visit Washington in Bid to Bolster Bipartisan Support
New York Times, Nov. 10 (0300), Pg. A4 | Andrew E. Kramer
Mr. Ariev, who is organizing a delegation of Ukrainian lawmakers to visit Washington in December, said, ”We understand one thing: The danger we see from the so-called radical wings of both parties, the far-right Republicans and far-left Democrats. They could start a conversation about stopping aid to Ukraine.” Ukraine, he said, should work to retain bipartisan support regardless of the outcome. ”We need to maintain our contacts and communication with both parties. We need to extend it, we need to intensify it, and we need to talk to both parties for support.”
EUROPE
9. Early Peace Talks Appear Unlikely as Russians Retreat and Retaliate
New York Times, Nov. 10 (0300), Pg. A10 | Michael Crowley, Edward Wong and Julian E. Barnes
American and European officials say serious peace talks between Ukraine and Russia are unlikely in the near future, even as the Biden administration tries to fend off growing questions from some members of Congress about the U.S. government’s open-ended investment in the war. They also concede that it is difficult to envision terms of a settlement that Ukraine and Russia would accept.
10. Allies Give Ukraine Timely Aid, a Weapon to Shoot Down Jets, Drones and Cruise Missiles
New York Times, Nov. 10 (0300), Pg. A12 | John Ismay
After eight continuous months of combat, Ukraine is running low on the missiles that its Soviet-era air defense systems use to shoot down Russian drones and warplanes. But on Monday, according to U.S. and Ukrainian officials, the country received its first shipment of an advanced weapon whose design helps solve the supply problem. ”It does provide a significant air defense capability,” Brig. Gen. Patrick S. Ryder, a Pentagon spokesman, told reporters on Tuesday. He added that NASAMS can defend against ”basically any type of advanced aerial threat that Russia may try to employ against Ukrainian targets or civilians.”
11. Both Russia and Ukraine Are Mixing Trickery With Artillery on the Battlefield
New York Times, Nov. 10 (0300), Pg. A11 | Andrew E. Kramer
Russia’s war in Ukraine is being fought with the blunt force of artillery bombardments, airstrikes and infantry assaults. But it is also a battle of wits — waged between generals sending signals intended to confuse and mislead their enemies — and a contest of feints, parries and continual efforts to set traps. In recent weeks, Ukrainian officials had feared Russia was trying to trick them with a flurry of confusing messages in the Kherson region — including the disappearance of manned checkpoints like the one in the cellphone video, as well as the removal of Russian flags from administrative buildings.
12. UK boosts support for Ukrainian troops through winter
Reuters, Nov. 9 (1314) | Alistair Smout
Britain is stepping up its support for Ukrainian soldiers through the winter, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace told Reuters on Wednesday, following weeks of Ukrainian advances towards the southern city of Kherson. Wallace joined NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg to observe the training of Ukrainian troops in the southeast English town of Lydd, as Britain announced the delivery of a further 12,000 extreme cold-weather sleeping kits for Ukraine.
13. NATO members Poland, Slovakia to increase defense spending
Associated Press, Nov. 9 (0944) | Not Attributed
Poland will significantly raise defense spending to at least 3% of its annual economic output next year and Slovakia is also investing heavily in its armed forces, the two NATO members’ prime ministers said Wednesday. Poland’s Mateusz Morawiecki and Slovakia’s Eduard Heger attended a multinational military exercise in Poland and said their Central European countries are boosting their deterrence power and military cooperation amid the war in neighboring Ukraine.
14. Macron ends France’s Africa mission, ponders new strategy
Agence France-Presse, Nov. 9 (1017) | Not Attributed
French President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday announced that France was ending its Barkhane anti-jihadist mission in Africa after over a decade, saying a new strategy would be worked out with African partners. The declaration came in a wide-ranging speech reviewing France’s strategy where the president also underlined the importance of its nuclear deterrent, as well as relations with Germany and the United Kingdom despite recent tensions.
RUSSIA
15. Russia’s Putin Won’t Attend Upcoming G-20 Summit in Bali
Associated Press, Nov. 9 (2357) | Niniek Karmini
Russian President Vladimir Putin will not attend the Group of 20 summit in Indonesia next week, an Indonesian government official said Thursday, avoiding a possible confrontation with the United States and its allies over his war in Ukraine. U.S. President Joe Biden, Chinese President Xi Jinping and other world leaders are to attend the two-day summit in Bali that starts Nov. 15. The summit was to have been the first time Biden and Putin would have been together at a gathering since Russia invaded Ukraine in February.
16. Moscow, Iran Vow Stronger Ties
Wall Street Journal, Nov. 10 (0200), Pg. A9 | Ian Lovett and James Marson
Russia and Iran’s security chiefs pledged Wednesday to deepen the military cooperation between the two countries, further cementing ties that have seen Tehran supply drones to bolster Moscow’s war effort in Ukraine. During a meeting in Tehran, Russian security council secretary Nikolai Patrushev and his Iranian counterpart Ali Shamkhani said they would jointly fight what they called Western interference in their countries, and expand economic ties in an effort to evade sanctions.
INDO-PACIFIC
17. US Navy arrives in Hobart as USS Tripoli amphibious assault ship docks to give its crew a break
ABC News (Australia), Nov. 10 (2314) | James Dunlevie and Megan Whitfield
One of the US Navy’s most potent naval weapons has pulled into Hobart for a break, following time spent in the contested South China Sea. The 257-metre-long USS Tripoli — with its crew of almost 1,200 personnel — has docked in Hobart and is scheduled to stay until Sunday. In a statement, the US Embassy said the America-class amphibious assault ship had been “operating in the US Seventh Fleet area of operations on its maiden deployment”.
18. U.S. alone can’t police world: U.K. navy chief on Indo-Pacific tilt
Nikkei Asia Online (Japan), Nov. 9 (2200) | Ken Moriyasu
Two British warships, the HMS Tamar and HMS Spey, are on a five-year deployment to the Indo-Pacific region. Instead of the ships periodically returning to the U.K., the Royal Navy has decided to rotate their crews, dividing them into three teams: white, red and blue. From Tonga to Bangladesh, the vessels have been making port calls across the region, demonstrating a permanent presence. “We consider that cost to be a price absolutely worth paying, for the signals we want to send and the obligations that we feel out here,” First Sea Lord and Chief of Naval Staff Ben Key told Nikkei Asia in an interview aboard the Tamar. The River-class offshore patrol vessel was docked in a Mitsubishi Heavy Industries dockyard in Yokohama, just over one year into its current deployment.
19. UK Navy should ‘export’ A2/AD ‘bubbles’ to Indo-Pacific partners to fend off China: Report
BreakingDefense.com, Nov. 9 (1334) | Tim Martin
The United Kingdom’s Royal Navy should “export” anti-access/anti-denial (A2/AD) “bubbles” to regional partners in the Indo-Pacific so it can operate effectively there, while maintaining commitments in Europe, a new report urges.
20. Japan, U.S. eye “2-plus-2” security talks in January
Kyodo News (Japan), Nov. 9 (0657) | Not Attributed
Japan and the United States eye holding “two-plus-two” security talks between their foreign and defense ministers soon, possibly in January, diplomatic sources said Wednesday, with the allies facing greater security challenges from China, North Korea and Russia. Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi, Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada, and their U.S. counterparts Antony Blinken and Lloyd Austin are expected to attend the planned in-person meeting.
21. Biden Gets Key Break as Southeast Asia Bolsters Militaries
Bloomberg News, Nov. 9 (2148) | Philip J. Heijmans
US-China tensions have America’s closest allies in Asia strengthening their militaries. But in a boost to President Joe Biden’s diplomatic efforts, that trend is extending to some Southeast Asian nations which have recently kept the US at arm’s length. President Xi Jinping’s more assertive foreign policy is shifting that equation for some countries as Beijing accelerates its military development and reiterates claims to Taiwan and a huge swath of the South China Sea. Regional governments have also been frustrated that efforts to negotiate a code of conduct between China and Asean in the South China Sea haven’t progressed.
22. 7 killed as Philippine troops clash with Muslim rebels
Associated Press, Nov. 9 (2257) | Jim Gomez
Philippine troops have clashed with Muslim guerrillas in a southern village, leaving at least three soldiers and four rebels dead and sparking fears that an escalation could threaten a 2014 peace pact that has considerably eased years of heavy fighting.
MIDDLE EAST
23. Israel Hits Suspected Iran Weapons Convoy in Syria With Airstrikes
Wall Street Journal Online, Nov. 9 (1113) | David S. Cloud and Benoit Faucon
Israel carried out airstrikes in eastern Syria targeting a convoy of vehicles suspected of smuggling Iranian weapons after it crossed the border from Iraq, people familiar with the attack said Wednesday. The attack late Tuesday near Abu Kamal—a border town often used as a transshipment point by militant groups with ties to Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps—destroyed several vehicles and killed at least 10 people, including an unknown number of Iranians, according to the people and Iraqi militia members. A spokesman for the U.S. military said its forces weren’t involved. Israel secretly coordinates with the U.S. on many of the airstrikes it carries out in Syria.
24. Iran protests rage on streets as officials renew threats
Associated Press, Nov. 9 (2250) | Jon Gambrell
Protests in Iran raged on streets into Thursday with demonstrators remembering a bloody crackdown in the country’s southeast, even as the nation’s intelligence minister and army chief renewed threats against local dissent and the broader world. At least 328 people have been killed and 14,825 others arrested in the unrest, according to Human Rights Activists in Iran, a group that’s been monitoring the protests over their 54 days. Iran’s government for weeks has remained silent on casualty figures while state media counterfactually claims security forces have killed no one.
25. Russia’s war and energy attacks loom over COP27
Washington Post, Nov. 10 (0115), Pg. A8 | Siobhán O’Grady
This is the first COP since Russia invaded Ukraine in February – and the first time Ukraine has had its own pavilion at the annual conference. Ukrainian delegates hope their presence will serve not only as a stark reminder of the human costs of the war, but also the consequences of the world’s reliance on fossil fuel producers such as Russia. So far, they are being warmly received.
AMERICAS
26. Couple who tried to sell nuclear secrets sentenced to lengthy prison terms
Washington Post, Nov. 10 (0115), Pg. B3 | Salvador Rizzo
A Navy engineer who tried to sell military secrets to a foreign country was sentenced Wednesday to more than 19 years in prison, and his wife was sentenced to just shy of 22 years for aiding his plans and then attempting to hide her role. Jonathan Toebbe, a civilian nuclear engineer with a top-secret security clearance, and Diana Toebbe, a private-school teacher in their hometown of Annapolis, admitted they tried to sell restricted data about nuclear propulsion systems on submarines to a foreign country – a violation of the Atomic Energy Act that carries a maximum penalty of life in prison.
ARCTIC
27. ‘Unconventional’ delivery of U.S. airpower in Arctic tailored to serve notice to Russia
Stars and Stripes Online, Nov. 9 (0729) | John Vandiver
U.S. special operations forces flying over the Arctic on Wednesday rolled a long-range missile out the back of a C-130 aircraft, dropping it by parachute before it blasted toward its target in the distance. The operation marked the first-ever demonstration in Europe of Rapid Dragon, an experimental program that uses standard air drop procedures to launch air-to-surface cruise missiles.
ARMY
28. Inside the ongoing ‘evolution’ of Army special operations
C4ISRNET.com (Exclusive), Nov. 9 (1503) | Davis Winkie
The distinctive patch of the Army’s Special Forces units dates back to 1955, when Capt. John W. Fry of the 77th Special Forces Group reportedly submitted a design he felt reflected the new units’ all-domain mission. According to Army heraldry officials, the three lightning flashes represent the elite troops’ ability to “strike rapidly by air, water or land.” Nearly 70 years later, the service’s top special operations leader sees a resonance between that original all-domain concept and the “modern day” deterrence triad of space, cyber and special operations that senior leaders unveiled in recent months. The military’s top space official, Gen. James Dickinson, dubbed it the “influence triad” when he unveiled the concept in August.
29. Stitched up: US Army developing new data mesh concepts
Janes International Defence Review, Nov. 9 (1345) | Carlo Munoz
The US Army is establishing technological foundations for a new data mesh concept, which service leaders believe will revolutionise how data exchanges take place on the battlefield, positioning the army to take advantage of the Pentagon’s data-centric approach to warfare.
30. Troops from Fort Carson, Fort Hood and Hunter AAF tapped for deployments to Europe
Stars and Stripes Online, Nov. 9 (1800) | Corey Dickstein
Soldiers from the Army’s 1st Cavalry Division and its 3rd and 4th Infantry Divisions will deploy to Europe later this year to replace other U.S.-based units deployed to the Continent amid the monthslong Russian invasion of Ukraine, service officials announced Wednesday.
INSTALLATIONS
31. Hundreds Of Red Hill Families Still Sick A Year Later, Survey Finds
Honolulu Civil Beat, Nov. 10 (0046) | Christina Jedra
Almost a year after the Navy’s water system was contaminated by a fuel leak, hundreds of people are still experiencing negative health impacts after drinking the tainted water, according to the results of a state and federal government survey released Wednesday. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which conducted the survey with the Hawaii Department of Health, did not make a judgment on the cause of the health problems – chronic health issues lingering from last year or the result of some ongoing exposure. However, the Navy and DOH have maintained that the water has been safe to drink for months.
NOTABLE COMMENTARY
32. Post midterms, Congress must focus on defense budget transparency
The Hill Online, Nov. 9 (0800) | Elaine McCusker
The first order of business for the post midterm elections lame-duck session of Congress should be an agreement on a budget framework and passage of fiscal year 2023 appropriations bills. This critical task should be done before Congress adjourns at the end of the year. Most importantly, it must be completed prior to the Dec. 16 deadline of the current continuing resolution (CR). Under this CR, the Defense Department is losing up to $207 million in buying power per day. The new Congress should not have to start its first session with urgent old business hanging over its head and increasing damage to national security.
33. How would a Republican-controlled House affect relations with China?
Washington Examiner Online, Nov. 9 (1337) | Tom Rogan
Whether Republicans will take control of the U.S. House is as yet unclear, although a narrow House majority would be in line with the results reported so far. If they do, then addressing China’s challenge to the U.S.-led democratic international order will be their foreign policy priority. Expect House Republican Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), should he become Speaker, to establish a dedicated China committee in the House of Representatives.
34. A Republican-controlled House isn’t going to abandon Ukraine for Russia
Washington Examiner Online, Nov. 9 (1552) | Tom Rogan
Much media attention has been given to comments from Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), who stands to become speaker of the House if Republicans do win a House majority. McCarthy warned last month that Americans don’t want their elected representatives “to write a blank check to Ukraine.” Alongside skepticism of U.S. support for Ukraine from other prominent Republicans, notably Sen.-elect J.D. Vance (R-OH), some believe U.S. aid for Ukraine may soon come to an abrupt end. Such expectations are exaggerated.
35. Australia Is Gearing Up for Possible War With China
Bloomberg Opinion, Nov. 9 (1702) | Hal Brands
Japan is America’s single most important ally, but Australia has historically been its most reliable. Alone among US allies, not just in the Indo-Pacific but globally, Australia has fought in all of America’s major wars since World War I. As I found during three days in Sydney and Canberra, the prospect of war in the Taiwan Strait is forging Australia, Japan and the US into a latter-day Triple Entente — the pre-World War I coalition that sought to contain Imperial Germany — in the Western Pacific. That comparison is reassuring and disquieting at the same time.